The Tea Party Primary?
The debate is over, the votes have been tallied and the corn dogs have been put in storage until next year. Another Iowa Straw Poll has come and gone. The most meaningless and least predictive event of the primary cycle has picked another winner and already winnowed out at least one inevitable loser. It has also given us a definitive sense of the mood of the Republican Party. Unlike past years where establishment candidates like Romney and Bush won or had very good showings, four of the top five candidates this year are aligned very closely with the Tea Party movement. Pawlenty, the lone moderate who chose to compete, spent millions of dollars and 18 months trying to run a traditional Republican campaign. Finally, after limping across the finish line in third, he looked around and decided that this just wasn’t his type of crowd and chose to gracefully give up. This was not a Republican event. It was a Tea Party event and despite the “front-runner” status of Mitt Romney, it is increasingly likely to be a Tea Party Primary.
The Republican Party has been drifting towards the right ever since Reagan took the nomination in 1980. But in 2008, after losing badly to Obama, the tether that connected the conservative movement to the political center of the nation snapped. The anti-tax and anti-government purists started to demand things of their party and of their candidates that tested the very definitions of Republican and Conservative. All of a sudden, people with 96% conservative voting records like Bob Bennett of Utah, Mike Castle of Delaware and even John McCain, the 2008 Republican nominee for President, weren’t conservative enough. This next cycle they will be setting their sights on Olympia Snowe, Lindsey Graham and Orin Hatch. All of them are in very real danger of losing their Senate seats to a Tea Party backed challenger from their right.
So where does that leave Mitt Romney in 2012? As the only true “establishment” candidate left in the race, how does he get nominated? How can a party that has become more anti-establishment and more right wing nominate somebody for President who is ostensibly to the left of John McCain? How can the Tea Party accept a candidate who is, basically, a “politics as usual” moderate? The results of the Iowa Straw Poll say they can’t. Romney tried to lower expectations by not really participating in the event, but it still must have been a little worrisome and a bit humiliating to be beat by Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and newcomer Rick Perry. His name recognition alone should have gotten him more than 567 votes. Some pundits were predicting a top 3 or top 5 finish. Instead, he came in a far distant 7th.
The Iowa Straw Poll showed exactly who is in charge of the Republican Party right now. It may be traditionally the least predictive primary event, but this year the Straw Poll told us everything we need to know about today’s Republican Party and Mitt Romney’s chances. The Tea Party takeover is nearly complete. Moderates need not apply.
